A new poll showed that the RICO indictment of Trump in Georgia has made 24% of Republicans less likely to vote for him in 2024.

Semafor reported on the poll by the Benenson Group:

The survey may carry extra weight for Democrats because it was conducted by Joel Benenson, the pollster for Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaigns.

It finds that 24% of Republicans say the charges make them less likely to vote for Trump against President Joe Biden — “more than enough to swing a close general election,” according to a memo accompanying the results.

The usual qualifiers apply. This is just one poll more than a year out from the general election, and Republicans voters still overwhelmingly support Trump.

There is another big red flag in the poll besides a quarter of Republicans saying that the Georgia indictment makes it less likely they will vote for Trump. Only 59% of Republicans say that the Georgia indictment makes it much more likely that they will vote for Trump. The Georgia indictment has caused more than four out of every ten Republicans to have doubts about Trump.

As far as the overall race, the poll shows Trump and Biden tied at 46%, but polling has struggled for years to measure younger voters who are strongly Democratic and have turned out in record numbers for recent elections, so any head-to-head match-up numbers are irrelevant at this point. Even good pollsters continue to struggle to get a handle on what the electorate will look like. That picture will come more into focus as Election Day gets closer.

The main issue for the Republican Party is that even with Trump in a weakened state, the GOP does not have a second option, so it looks like it is going to be Trump or bust for them.

The Georgia indictment is different because it is a case against Trump that is not federal so it can’t be easily tied to Biden in Republican minds. It is coming from a state with Republican leadership at the top, and until recently Georgia was a solidly Republican state.

America should assume that the 2024 election will be close, so even a small drop in Republican support for Trump could be catastrophic for the GOP. 

Just enough Republicans are doubting Trump to cost the right the next election.


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